Decision Aids

While recent research has shown fast and frugal heuristics to be an accurate and viable means for everyday decision making, this does not preclude the use of probabilistic decision-making for complex issues. However, the limitations of human information processing dictates that when probabilistic methods are used, humans require the use of decision aids. In the same vein as using paper and pencil to extend working memory in solving mathematical problems, computer programs can be used to support probabilistic decision-making. These programs keep track of human-developed criteria, apply human-assigned weights, and perform the complex computations required.

In fulfillment of Simon's vision for using computer "intelligence" to assist human decision-making, computer simulation is widely used to assist in human-to-system interface design and even to model human participation in complex systems. Computer simulation has become a powerful engineering tool to evaluate system concepts prior to design and build.

Heuristics are how we make everyday decisions. However, care also needs to be taken in this regard. While the usefulness of heuristics has been proven for a variety of decisions such as stock selection, one needs to be on-guard for biases and prejudices that can creep into heuristic decisions. This is particularly a concern when decisions are "people-related."

Theories of Human Decision Making*

* Graphic adapted from Gigerenzer, G., Todd, P.M., Simple Heuristics That Make Us Smart, Oxford University Press, 1999.